Eight matches Thursday: Breaking down the NCAA volleyball round of 16

Madisen Skinner and Texas play Tennessee at Stanford/Matt Smith photo

There are 16 teams left in the NCAA Division I women’s volleyball tournament and they have a combined 75 losses.

The majority of them — with some notable exceptions — are to other teams in this remaining round of 16.

For example, No. 1 Nebraska’s loss was to No. 3 Wisconsin.

Wisconsin’s were only in the Big Ten, to Nebraska, No. 11 Purdue and Penn State.

Second-ranked Stanford lost to Florida in August, to Nebraska in September and then only to Arizona State in the Pac-12.

Three of those 75 losses came on the first day of the season, way back on August 25, when No. 4 Pittsburgh lost in four to BYU at Montana, defending national-champion No. 7 Texas lost in four at Long Beach State and No. 8 Kentucky lost in four at Colorado State. 

Our headline the next day:

“Upsets — Long Beach stuns Texas — and surprises on NCAA first day like no other”

It set the tone for a season in which anything could — and would — happen.

In our story that day:

“A reminder that it was the first day of a long season, one that is always a marathon and not a sprint. The top teams, especially, should be commended for playing each other and giving themselves and NCAA volleyball fans a high quality schedule to start the season.”

With that, here is the chronological TV lineup for Thursday’s NCAA tourney round of 16. A breakdown of each match follows:

NCAA tourney round of 16

All times Eastern
No. 5 Louisville (26-4) vs. No. 12 Creighton (29-4), noon, ESPN2 
No. 1 Nebraska (30-1) vs. Georgia Tech (24-6), 2 p.m., ESPN2
No. 4 Pittsburgh (27-4) vs. No. 13 Washington State (26-7), 2:30 p.m., ESPNU
No. 8 Kentucky (21-7) vs. No. 9 Arkansas (27-5), 4:30 p.m., ESPNU
No. 3 Wisconsin (28-3) vs. Penn State (23-8), 7 p.m., ESPN2
No. 7 Texas (24-4) vs. No. 10 Tennessee (26-4), 9 p.m., ESPN2
No. 6 Oregon (28-5) vs. No. 11 Purdue (23-8), 9:30 p.m., ESPNU
No. 2 Stanford (28-3) vs. Arizona State (28-6), 11:30 p.m., ESPNU

Saturday’s regional finals

The four regional finals will be shown on ESPNU, all in a row, starting with the Pittsburgh regional at 4 p.m.. Then comes the Nebraska regional at 6 p.m., the Wisconsin regional at 8 p.m. and Stanford regional at 10 p.m. 

There is no way, of course, that matches will finish in less than the two hours alloted — one can only wonder why the matches couldn’t start a few hours earlier to avoid overlap — so be prepared to have a second TV/device handy to watch on an alternative ESPN network and/or an ESPN streaming outlet.

Pittsburgh regional

No. 5 Louisville (26-4) vs. No. 12 Creighton (29-4): Louisville, which played in the 2021 national semifinals and then lost in last year’s NCAA title match to Texas, hit the ground running in August. The first weekend the Cardinals served notice as they swept Washington State and beat eventual Horizon League-champion Wright State in four. Before September ended they beat Missouri and Dayton, swept Penn State and Kentucky and closed out pre-conference play with a five-set loss to visiting Stanford. Louisville, which was 16-1 at home, went 10-3 on the road. Louisville was riding high before a stunning, four-set loss at NC State on October 1. Its other two ACC losses were in four at Georgia Tech and then in five at Pitt after it won the first two sets before falling 19-25, 24-26, 26-24, 25-21, 17-15. Louisville led 14-13 in the fifth. When on, Louisville’s starting seven are as good as anyone’s, including outsides Anna DeBeer and Charitie Luper, setter Elle Glock and libero Elena Scott.

There are two Creightons. The one with Norah Sis and the one without. With the 6-foot-1 junior outside hitter on the court, the Bluejays are 21-1. Without her, 8-3, which includes one of Creigton’s two Big East losses, a five-setter at Xavier in late September. There are a lot good pieces on this team, especially Kendra Wait, who is a tremendous setter. Creighton, which has been snake-bit the past two NCAA Tournaments with tough injuries, is healthy and riding a 17-match winning streak, losing just one set during that run. Its other three losses were in five to Duke at Purdue in August, in four at Nebraska on September 6, and at Marquette, its Big East rival, on October 6.

No. 4 Pittsburgh (27-4) vs. No. 13 Washington State (26-7): Pittsburgh bounced back from that aforementioned season-opening loss with six wins in a row, including back-to-back wins over Kentucky and a sweep of Marquette before losing to Oregon in five. The Panthers’ other two losses were at Louisville, a sweep in mid-October, and in five — 25-18, 25-21, 23-25, 18-25, 16-14 — at Florida State a month ago. Pitt has an incredible mix of youth and experience, including two freshmen in 6-5 right side Olivia Babcock and outside Torrey Stafford. Babcock leads the team in kills and aces and is second and blocks, and Stafford is second in kills and third in digs.

Washington State is the mystery team. The Cougars are loaded with talent and experience, but have some rotations they can’t get out of. But when it’s all going well, Washington State, the United Nations team of college volleyball, is as good as anyone. It lost only to Louisville in the pre-conference season, which it punctuated with a four-set win at Texas. The Cougars were 17-2 overall, 7-1 in the Pac-12 when things went South. A five-set loss at USC on October 22 started a stretch in which they lost five of seven, including a five-set defeat to visiting UCLA. Two days later, with the season literally on the brink and down 2-0, they rallied for a five-set victory that gave new life. They finished the regular season with four Pac-12 wins, including in five over Arizona State. Don’t be surprised if Washington State gets swept by Pittsburgh or advances to the national semifinals or anything in between.

Nebraska regional

No. 1 Nebraska (30-1) vs. Georgia Tech (24-6): The nation knows the Huskers, the team that played before 92,000 in its football stadium and became a traveling road show this season as opponent after opponent broke home attendance records when Nebraska came to town. Nebraska finished the pre-conference season 9-0, losing only one set each to Creighton, Stanford and Kentucky. Then the powerful Huskers, starting four freshmen, sliced and diced their way to an 18-0 Big Ten record. The unbeaten season came to an end at Wisconsin, but many observers are betting that those two teams will meet again in the national title match. 

Georgia Tech is another one of those what-are-you-going-to-get teams and as international as Washington State. The Yellow Jackets went 13-5 in the ACC, which included two losses each to Pitt and Miami (both sweeps) and one to Louisville, which it also beat on November 3. The first loss to Pitt was in five. Tamara Otene, a 6-foot outside from New Zealand, can single-handedly carry her team, but two other foreigners — Argentian junior outside Bianca Bertolino and Brazilian freshman outside Larissa Mendes — also have more than 300 kills. 

No. 8 Kentucky (21-7) vs. No. 9 Arkansas (27-5): You could argue that Kentucky, on an 18-match winning streak, is playing better than anyone in the field. The Wildcats finished the SEC season, one in which they went 17-1, with sweeps of Arkansas and Florida and then swept Wofford and Baylor in the first rounds. But back on September 17, when Kentucky lost in four at Nebraska, its record was 2-6. It was preseason in which UK also lost twice to Pitt and to Purdue and Louisville. Its only SEC loss was a sweep by Tennessee, but the Wildcats swept the Vols in the rematch. Being healthy matters, of course, and Kentucky is, finally. It also has all the pieces, including two of the best in the nation in setter Emma Grome and libero Eleanor Bevin, players whose names don’t come up in those discussions but should. Kentucky is big and strong — think Reagan Rutherford, Azhani Tealer, Brooklyn DeLeye and Elise Goetzinger — and no one should be surprised if the Wildcats win this regional.

Arkansas is the darling of the field. The undersized Razorbacks play fierce defense — they led the SEC in opponent hitting percentage despite being ninth in blocks — and attack with abandon, especially 5-7 Jillian Gillen and 5-10 Taylor Head. Logic tells you that Arkansas is too short to go any farther — the Razorbacks lost in five at Kentucky on October 22 and then got swept by the Wildcats at home two weeks ago — but this team has an energy that can’t be imagined. Arkansas lost back-to-back matches to visiting Wisconsin the last two days of August and its other loss was at Georgia on November 1. 

Purdue’s Chloe Chicoine passes against Marquette/Purdue Athletics

Wisconsin regional

No. 3 Wisconsin (28-3) vs. Penn State (23-8): Wisconsin has just three losses, in five at Nebraska on October 21 and in four at Penn State on November 11 and in five the next day at Purdue. But those last two come with a caveat, because Wisconsin was without 6-9 Anna Smrek. In the five matches since she returned from concussion protocol, all sweeps, the lanky Canadian has 56 kills with12 errors in 101 attacks (.455) and 21 blocks. Wisconsin boasts the Big Ten player of the year in outside Sarah Franklin, a team with an unparalled combination of height and athleticism, and Julia Orzol, the outside who moved to libero and who has become among the nation’s elite at that position.

Penn State went 6-3 in the pre-conference season with losses to Florida, Georgia Tech and Louisville. The Nittany Lions had a home tournament in which they beat three future NCAA tourney teams in Western Kentucky, Colgate and James Madison. They went 7-0 to start the B1G. Since then, however, they went 8-5 in the conference and that included two losses each to Nebraska and Purdue and tough five-set defeat to Michigan State. They upset Kansas in the second round, and, as any Penn State opponent can tell you, outside Jess Mruzik (fourth in the B1G in kills) can carry the Nittany Lions.

No. 6 Oregon (28-5) vs. No. 11 Purdue (23-8): Oregon has quietly taken care of business all season but is rarely in the national-championship discussion. In the pre-conference season they beat future NCAA tourney teams Hawai’i, Pepperdine, Pitt, James Madison and Marquette. In the Pac-12 their only losses were twice to Stanford and once each to Washington State and Arizona State. Oregon has five players with 154 or more kills and as a team, the Ducks were second only to USC for total kills in the Pac-12. Oregon also led the Pac-12 in blocks and was second in digs. Oregon might have the best combination of pin hitters in the nation in Mimi Colyer, Gabby Gonzales and Morgan Lewis. Hannah Pukis is among the setting elite, libero Georgia Murphy is a top-notch libero, and middles Kara McGhee and Karson Bacon are blocking machines. 

Purdue beat, in order in the pre-conference, Kansas, Marquette, SMU and Kentucky, all future tournament teams. The Boilermakers were up and down in the Big Ten, losing in five to Nebraska, beating Penn State and Minnesota, and then losing to Illinois. But they beat Penn State and Minnesota and again and on November 17 beat Wisconsin in five. Last week they beat Fairfield and then Marquette again. Purdue’s outside hitters, Eva Hudson and diminuitive Chloe Chicoine, average better than eight kills combined per set and can destroy an opponent, because both also hit well out of the back row. Raven Colvin has established herself in the middle, Maddie Schermerhorn is a top-level libero and setter Taylor Anderson is up to the task. Purdue can beat anyone in a given match, but can also lose to anyone, which it did this to, among others, Loyola Chicago, Northwestern and Indiana.

Stanford regional

No. 7 Texas (24-4) vs. No. 10 Tennessee (26-4): This is not the same Texas team that won the national championship last year. But it’s still pretty good. The Longhorns have two confounding defeats on their resume, that opener at Long Beach State in which star middle Asjia O’Neal did not play, and a sweep at Kansas State on November 8. The other two defeats were at home early, to Stanford and Washington State. Otherwise Texas dominated the Big 12 once again (17-1) and Madisen Skinner, who has won NCAA titles with Kentucky and Texas, was named conference player of the year. Texas has some X factors. Can setter Ella Swindle and libero Emma Halter rise to the occasion? And will right side Molly Phillips, who has had an up-and-down season, be the force she was last year at this time?

Tennessee hasn’t been this far since 2005 when it was a surprise national semifinalist before losing to eventual champion Washington. Tennessee has a powerful 1-2 punch in right side Morgahn Fingall (433 kills) and outside Jenaisya Moore (381), who is playing the best of her career after transferring from Ohio State. She’s averaging 15 kills in Tennessee’s last nine matches. The Vols have three quality losses, at Wisconsin in five on September 3, to Kentucky and to Arkansas. But on November 25 they were swept at South Carolina, a team that finished 11th in the SEC.

No. 2 Stanford (28-3) vs. Arizona State (28-6): Stanford, when healthy, has the best lineup in the country, pound for player for player, position by position. The best right side in Pac-12 player of the year in Kendall Kipp, best setter in Kami Miner, and right up there with the best in libero Elena Oglivie. Stanford’s two outsides are as good as anyone’s in Caitie Baird and Elia Rubin, the first middle is 6-5 Sami Francis, who can take over a match, and the second middle, McKenna Vicini comes in under the radar and all she’s done is lead the team in blocks and is hitting .421. In her last seven matches, she has 47 kills with three errors in 92 attacks and 42 blocks. But …

The last time they played, on October 29, Arizona State manhandled Stanford 25-16, 25-21, 25-14. ASU and first-year coach JJ Van Niel are the surprise of the nation. The Sun Devils went through the non-conference season 12-0 but the only future NCAA tourney team they beat was in the season opener over Florida Gulf Coast.

Arizona State really got everyone’s attention after starting the Pac-12 season 5-1 with only a loss to Stanford. But then the Sun Devils lost in five at Oregon State before sweeping at Oregon and then getting swept at Colorado. Just when you were going to write them off, they swept Cal and then blasted Stanford to improve at the time to 21-3, 9-3, and we all started to pay serious attention. ASU did not finish the regular season strong, however, losing to Oregon before beating Oregon State, losing to Washington Statey and then beating Arizona. But NCAA sweeps over Georgia and No. 15 BYU made everything all right. ASU has a star in Latvian Marta Levinska, second only to USC’s Skylar Fields in kills with 520, and a team that plays hard and together.

The post Eight matches Thursday: Breaking down the NCAA volleyball round of 16 appeared first on Volleyballmag.com.

​Read More Volleyballmag.com NCAA Women